Modeling Nest-survival Data: Recent Improvements and Future Directions
نویسنده
چکیده
Studies of nesting birds commonly seek to estimate nest success and to evaluate relationships between nest-survival rates and hypothesized infl uential factors. Recently, a number of advances have been made with regard to the analysis of nest-survival data, and improved methods now exist for relaxing assumptions and accounting for potentially important sources of variation in nest-survival data. Methods have been developed that allow diverse covariates of nest-survival rate to be incorporated into analyses of either discrete survival data or failure times. Analysis of binomial data for nest fates over discrete periods has dominated the nest-survival literature and been the subject of many recent advances that extend possible analyses beyond that of the Mayfi eld method. Recent papers that describe the use of generalized linear mixed models to incorporate covariate effects on nest survival, including some examples that employed a random-effects framework, illustrate the benefi ts that can be gained from using such models when they are appropriate. Noteworthy examples of the use of analysis of failure times also exist and illustrate the key elements of this type of analysis, which can accommodate censoring, heterogeneity in survival, staggered entry of subjects into the study, and continuous and categorical covariates of survival times. The new analytical approaches should allow avian ecologists to evaluate a broad variety of competing models. By using the various methods interchangeably, future analyses should provide new insights into the nesting ecology of birds.
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